Elizabeth Warren takes first lead in respected Iowa poll, followed by Biden and Sanders

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren leads at 22% in a new Des Moines Register/CNN poll released Saturday, surging seven points from June. Frontrunner Joe Biden came in at 20% and fellow progressive Bernie Sanders came in next at 11%. The margin of error was plus or minus four percentage points.

Here’s how the candidates ranked in June:

Biden – 24%

Sanders – 16%

Warren – 15%

Buttigieg – 14%

Harris – 7%

Klobuchar/O’Rourke – 2%

Bennet/Booker/Castro/Delaney/Gabbard/Inslee/Yang – 1%

Others – 0%

New Iowa poll! @ewarren surpasses @JoeBiden in the crucial first in the nation state. @BernieSanders is the only other candidate to hit double digits.

It’s also important to note that given the margin of error, the best way to read this is that Warren and Biden have separated and are a clear two-person top tier in Iowa right now.

Elizabeth Warren has surged in Iowa, narrowly overtaking Joe Biden and distancing herself from fellow progressive Bernie Sanders, the latest Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.  

Warren, the U.S. senator from Massachusetts, now holds a 2-percentage-point lead, with 22% of likely Democratic caucusgoers saying she is their first choice for president. It is the first time she has led in the Register’s poll. 

Former Vice President Biden, who had led each of the Register’s three previous 2020 cycle polls, follows her at 20%. Sanders, the U.S. senator from Vermont, has fallen to third place with 11%.  

No other candidate reaches double digits. 

“This is the first major shakeup” in what had been a fairly steady race, said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll. “It’s the first time we’ve had someone other than Joe Biden at the top of the leader board.” 

South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg follows the three leaders as the favorite of 9% of poll respondents. U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris of California is at 6%. U.S. Sens. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Cory Booker of New Jersey are at 3%.  

Polling at 2% are U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke of Texas, businessman Tom Steyer and entrepreneur Andrew Yang.  

Eight others are polling at 1% or less.  

But the race is far from settled: Just one in five likely Democratic caucusgoers say their minds are made up, while 63% say they could still be persuaded to support a different candidate.  

“The data in this poll seem to suggest the field is narrowing, but my sense is there’s still opportunity aplenty,” Selzer said. “The leaders aren’t all that strong. The universe is not locked in.” 

The poll of 602 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted Sept. 14-18, and the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.